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Covid: A Forecast

I’ve been dropping a forecast into presentations frequently these days. Covid. What’s the path ahead? When will it be over? What to watch for? Clients ask. I look at the next two years. in a timeline that adjusts. The one I'm showing here is recent.

Uncertainties are present. Election(s). Efficacy. Mutations. Distribution. Public acceptance. “Herd immunity.” So I show ranges. The time-frames where we might expect telling milestones of progress in the fight. This diagram shows my outlook for the US, not other global areas.

Treadway Covid Forecast Small © Bob Treadway


The red bars are “wildcards,” a futurist term for less certain developments that have high impacts. Surges, consumer attitudes, virus mutations are all in this category. I’m especially concerned about the mutations of the virus. Some of the bars are shaded. The darker areas show higher probability. My turquoise entries show issues that can positively influence progress against the disease.

Clients groan when they see my forecast of the “next normal” for 2022. Natural. For those of you who’ve seen my work before you know I define forecasts as points in time. They will change with time and new information.

May new information in the months ahead be positive.


Image © Bob Treadway, 2020. All rights reserved.
Photo by Patrick Perkins on Unsplash
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