Looming Flu
It frightens me. If I had to rank the next outbreaks on a scale that forecasters often use – probability plus impact – bird flu ranks at the top. It won’t come out of the blue, like a bat-human crossover or even a probable lab escape. It will come at us with prior warnings and an acknowledged presence in the environment. It’s the worst kind of disaster. One that we saw in advance and didn’t prepare for.
I mentioned Covid in social media posts in January 2020. I’ve been posting about the current bird flu off and on for about 18 months before this writing in May 2024. The value of forecasters is the early signal. We’re always thinking of future possibilities and probabilities in what I call a “cone of relative certainty.” Get that? I’m hedging. It’s not “absolutely certain.” It’s “relatively certain” that this virus will have a significant future impact.
If a virus is circulating largely because a wild population has it and is passing it to domesticated birds… AND it’s already crossed species boundaries to cows, dolphins, and even a very few humans, then it’s relatively certain we’ll face it at some point.
The virus has already made the jump into cows. A substantial portion of the American milk herd has the virus and 20% of random samples are revealing segments of the virus. Thank goodness the vast bulk of the consumer milk supply is pasteurized, dramatically reducing the risk of human transmission. Media stories about a trend of “raw milk” consumption makes me shudder.
Bird flu isn’t a stranger. An H1N1 outbreak in 2009 killed a quarter of a million humans worldwide. H5N1 is novel. Humans haven’t seen it before.
Forecasters doing appropriate work pick out “trigger points” – what to watch for that will cause a cascade or leap forward in a development. Look for a pig crossover. Pigs are what triggered the Spanish Flu in the late stages of World War I. Pigs probably on a farm in Kansas generated the first version of the influenza that crossed into young men being trained at Ft. Riley and sent to war in Europe. The result was historical.
For us today, a virus that has formed in the swine population, already facing its own killer pathogens that originated in Africa, could be a game-changer.
The crux, however, is potential action. A bird flu vaccine – probably for H5N1 – is already the most coveted “vapor-med” being discussed in vaccine-generation circles. A generic H5 vaccine exists. Our US government even has some stockpiled although the purpose is unclear. (Probably a stopgap intervention meant for high officials and first responders.) But the world does not have enough capability to quickly produce massive amounts on a short timeline. In addition, to get immunity two doses will be required just like in the early days of Covid.
We don’t have a good early warning system at this point. Although the Department of Agriculture has some cow-testing state-to-state standards established it does not have the authority or staff availability to monitor and test animal movements. And there’s no program that I’m seeing from USDA or CDC to monitor presence in other groups like swine.
What can you do? A few recommendations:
I mentioned Covid in social media posts in January 2020. I’ve been posting about the current bird flu off and on for about 18 months before this writing in May 2024. The value of forecasters is the early signal. We’re always thinking of future possibilities and probabilities in what I call a “cone of relative certainty.” Get that? I’m hedging. It’s not “absolutely certain.” It’s “relatively certain” that this virus will have a significant future impact.
If a virus is circulating largely because a wild population has it and is passing it to domesticated birds… AND it’s already crossed species boundaries to cows, dolphins, and even a very few humans, then it’s relatively certain we’ll face it at some point.
The virus has already made the jump into cows. A substantial portion of the American milk herd has the virus and 20% of random samples are revealing segments of the virus. Thank goodness the vast bulk of the consumer milk supply is pasteurized, dramatically reducing the risk of human transmission. Media stories about a trend of “raw milk” consumption makes me shudder.
Bird flu isn’t a stranger. An H1N1 outbreak in 2009 killed a quarter of a million humans worldwide. H5N1 is novel. Humans haven’t seen it before.
Forecasters doing appropriate work pick out “trigger points” – what to watch for that will cause a cascade or leap forward in a development. Look for a pig crossover. Pigs are what triggered the Spanish Flu in the late stages of World War I. Pigs probably on a farm in Kansas generated the first version of the influenza that crossed into young men being trained at Ft. Riley and sent to war in Europe. The result was historical.
For us today, a virus that has formed in the swine population, already facing its own killer pathogens that originated in Africa, could be a game-changer.
The crux, however, is potential action. A bird flu vaccine – probably for H5N1 – is already the most coveted “vapor-med” being discussed in vaccine-generation circles. A generic H5 vaccine exists. Our US government even has some stockpiled although the purpose is unclear. (Probably a stopgap intervention meant for high officials and first responders.) But the world does not have enough capability to quickly produce massive amounts on a short timeline. In addition, to get immunity two doses will be required just like in the early days of Covid.
We don’t have a good early warning system at this point. Although the Department of Agriculture has some cow-testing state-to-state standards established it does not have the authority or staff availability to monitor and test animal movements. And there’s no program that I’m seeing from USDA or CDC to monitor presence in other groups like swine.
What can you do? A few recommendations:
- Remember 2020. Don’t toss out that protective gear. Remember how masks were in such short supply that we were walking on the street wearing home-made cloth masks? Remember how hard it was to buy bleach or alcohol? Don’t make those mistakes again.
- Anticipate what government could demand if we see another fast-spreading virus hit the population. Factor in a potential change in top US leadership and how that could play out. We already know the tendencies of both presidential candidates.
- Have a basic contingency plan in place. Consider quarantine, school and education, air travel, shopping, food supplies, medicines, and your personal security.
- More than anything else, stay alert and try to discern what’s true and what’s not. Today’s media can be contaminated by opinion and disinformation. Weigh what you see and hear and determine the safest and best way to proceed. Be patient as early reports are often inaccurate.