Blog

FAO

Tracking, January 2011

A new year and new blips on the radar screen in our practice. I post items here from time to time that we’re watching because of our scanning, clients, or upcoming engagements.

Food Prices - for well over two years we’ve tracked a steady uptick in worldwide food prices. One visual element in our briefings and conference presentations is the UN’s index of world prices which shows a steady climb that now has exceeded the “trigger point” of 2007-08.

What do we mean by “trigger point?” When riots occur in less developed nations over food. Large portions of the population in these countries spend 50% or more of their incomes on food. This is a ticking time bomb that has been known to overthrow governments and even cause wars.

The
“North Atlantic Recession” - come on, it is no longer a global recession or even the “Great Recession” when you view it from Brazil, India, or China. It’s the recession that still either cripples or impedes the US and the EU. Even Canada is out and expanding.

The
“Employment Follies” - how badly can a government manipulate statistics? Just look at the jobless in America. OK, every governing administration wants to make the news better but creating 65,000 jobs in a month when it’s going to take over a quarter million new jobs every 30 days to get back to something like 5% unemployment is not good news. Especially when most of the jobs are in hotels, restaurant kitchens, or temporary services. Employment is a key trend for America’s return to economic health. We should be realistic about it.