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Robotics

Driverless Cars and Long Term Implications

Driverless cars are reality today. The street images you look at on Google Maps came from cameras mounted on some of the first examples. It’s a logical presumption that eventually consumers will adopt the technology for mobility.

What does that mean? Is it a short journey, a “hockey stick” adoption pattern, and do the benefits outweigh the difficulties of putting those vehicles on the road? Who will own them? Who will make them? What will be the impacts on auto insurance, manufacturing, purchase, lending, and payment for usage?

The questions are multiple and should be asked if you’re in any number of fields. Government, public safety, financial services, city planning, transportation, city dwellers, auto manufacturing, and geospatial fields come to mind immediately.

The adoption? It will depend on consumer attitudes and those will be shaped by existing perceptions and the safety record of the vehicles. Google is ahead in the development with an enviably low mishap rate but the recent Tesla-related death and a culture of experimentation in the driving industry force – the software sector – means that the road ahead will be bumpy.

Plus there’s the regulatory environment which right now is a patchwork of state laws in the US without a Federal baseline that needs to be established. As typical, government lags by anywhere from 5 to 10 years just as they have with other de novo technology issues like drones, advanced analytics, and cyber-currencies.

But what you can do right now is think through the implications of eventual adoption on your career or industry. After a recent presentation where I outlined the impact of 25% of drivers switching to use of driverless vehicles a state government executive cam
Googledriverlessmall
e up to me and said his department at looked at the same possibility and determined that the existing highway infrastructure is currently overbuilt by about 40%. He said his state is scrambling right now to convert construction assessments to other forms of mass transit. He believed a 25% adoption was highly probable by 2040.

Insurance and financial services already anticipate the impact. Travelers places language in their annual report on the threat to their revenue of autonomous auto adoption. Warren Buffett is quoted as saying, “when you start making the driver safer, that would be a big, big jump, and that will happen some day, and when it happens there will be a lot less auto insurance written."


Photo: By Grendelkhan - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=47467048

April, 2013 - What We're Watching in the Practice

Here’s a quick synopsis of projects, presentations, and work we’ve done over the recent past. I’m also including some trends we’re seeing from the work. It’s been a hectic several months as we’ve found a permanent place to live in a new city, remodeled a dwelling, and settled into home and office.

These days a great number of economic forecasting assignments come my way and the last two months have been no exception. I was asked for three economic forecasts in agriculture, manufacturing, and construction. It’s encouraging to be able to pass along relatively positive news and projections for a change.

Heaviest implications – the effects of a major cybersecurity breach on national/regional economies. Three years ago I moderated and did the closing keynote presentation to the most influential global meeting of information security professionals. 90% believe a major breach is imminent. The Pentagon has ramped up tactics, “weaponized code” is loose on the Internet, information security is now mixed into global conflicts and efforts to prevent access to nuclear weapons. This is a big deal and surprisingly it goes unconsidered in most business planning.

Most overlooked development – the quiet but impactful use of robotics. The development of devices like Baxter and the continuing utilization of manufacturing robots has quietly cut into employment. Expect deeper cuts in the next ten years. With the price point dropping, capability rising sharply, and programming easier look for these intelligent machines to slide into society under the radar.

Trending upward – succession is taking the biggest uptick in my consulting assignments. Transfer of business, top management replacement, and governance are areas where I see rising demand. With Boomers flooding over the 65 age-line and smaller pools of obvious successors available this is going to occupy more of my time in the coming years.

Longer term and interesting – the extraordinary transition society will make as energy sources swing from fossil fuels to renewables. It’s obvious that the effectiveness and adoption of renewable energy sources is poised for a rapid spurt. Legacy businesses have not thought through the implications for their own fields. The swing will most probably take place in the next 15-20 years.

I believe it’s shrewd to have social media presence although how this field gels in the next five years is still uncertain. I like the utility of
Twitter as a scanning aid and I also post sporadically. It’s also interesting to watch who follows the posts. I make no effort to attract followers but I find myself following many who find my posts useful.