Blog

Information Technology

April, 2013 - What We're Watching in the Practice

Here’s a quick synopsis of projects, presentations, and work we’ve done over the recent past. I’m also including some trends we’re seeing from the work. It’s been a hectic several months as we’ve found a permanent place to live in a new city, remodeled a dwelling, and settled into home and office.

These days a great number of economic forecasting assignments come my way and the last two months have been no exception. I was asked for three economic forecasts in agriculture, manufacturing, and construction. It’s encouraging to be able to pass along relatively positive news and projections for a change.

Heaviest implications – the effects of a major cybersecurity breach on national/regional economies. Three years ago I moderated and did the closing keynote presentation to the most influential global meeting of information security professionals. 90% believe a major breach is imminent. The Pentagon has ramped up tactics, “weaponized code” is loose on the Internet, information security is now mixed into global conflicts and efforts to prevent access to nuclear weapons. This is a big deal and surprisingly it goes unconsidered in most business planning.

Most overlooked development – the quiet but impactful use of robotics. The development of devices like Baxter and the continuing utilization of manufacturing robots has quietly cut into employment. Expect deeper cuts in the next ten years. With the price point dropping, capability rising sharply, and programming easier look for these intelligent machines to slide into society under the radar.

Trending upward – succession is taking the biggest uptick in my consulting assignments. Transfer of business, top management replacement, and governance are areas where I see rising demand. With Boomers flooding over the 65 age-line and smaller pools of obvious successors available this is going to occupy more of my time in the coming years.

Longer term and interesting – the extraordinary transition society will make as energy sources swing from fossil fuels to renewables. It’s obvious that the effectiveness and adoption of renewable energy sources is poised for a rapid spurt. Legacy businesses have not thought through the implications for their own fields. The swing will most probably take place in the next 15-20 years.

I believe it’s shrewd to have social media presence although how this field gels in the next five years is still uncertain. I like the utility of
Twitter as a scanning aid and I also post sporadically. It’s also interesting to watch who follows the posts. I make no effort to attract followers but I find myself following many who find my posts useful.

Fear Most? Not the Right Question

One of the better edited digests of information I read regularly is the Wall Street Journal’s “CIO Journal.” It’s a compilation of news items that affect businesses from the perspective of the increasingly integrated information and communications technology side of enterprises.

This morning a question was posed. “…which of the following Black Swan events you fear the most: natural disaster, cyber attack or hack, a loss of top talent, or that one of your strategic vendors gets acquired.” The column will compile the results.

A laudable effort. I will be interested. But as a practical matter it’s not enough to be looking only at the obvious future events that will affect your organization. If it had been me, I would have used a widely flung and well-informed network like CIO Journal has in its readers for even more useful purposes.

Subject matter experts who’ve arrived at their conclusions independently can be the best forecasters of the events ahead that are NOT on the radar screen yet. That was one of the central tenets of the fine James Surowiecki book
The Wisdom of Crowds.

Will we see a natural disaster that will affect companies? A major cyber attack or hack? Loss of top talent? Changes in the competitive landscape? Of course. They’re givens, not forecasts. And we need to be prepared for all of them, not rank ordering which we fear most.

For the last two years I’ve moderated the largest worldwide meeting of information security professionals. When I poll that group about the probability of a major cyber attack 75% agree it’s imminent. The other 25% respond that it happened already or is now occurring regularly.

The overlooked future events are the ones we’re not thinking about right now. They’re hidden around the corner or over the horizon.

That’s why I use techniques in strategy sessions to draw them out. Lay them in front of leadership. Examine their place in the spectrum of what’s ahead. Contemplate the after-effects and consequences of their occurrence. Develop a range of approaches to deal with them. Perhaps even compile contingency plans to address them.

Should you plan for the obvious? Of course. A mark of a truly robust organization, however, is one that looks for the unseen, the hidden, the events ahead that are not obvious.

A Conversation

I was the closing keynote presenter and moderator at a worldwide information technology conference a few months ago. One of the attendees and panelists was a very knowledgeable fellow from Canada, Stephen Ibaraki. Stephen is a founder and chair of a global information processing council. He approached me at the event about doing an interview.

We had a 90 minute conversation recently. Stephen provided thought-provoking questions in advance that ranged well outside the IT field to the global economy, trends, human adoption habits, and many others. You may find it interesting.

The
podcast can be found here.

Technology Trends from the Trenches of Enterprise IT

I’ve moderated and presented the closing keynote at the largest global gathering of information security professionals for the past two years. It gives me insight to what they see as emerging technologies, issues, and dangers.

This is an unusual conference. A task force guided the producers to stage a three day global meeting that departs from the typical talking heads and death by PowerPoint. Incisive interviews, extremely well-moderated panels, and audience interaction are the norm. This year there was an especially intriguing hands-on session co-led by IDEO and Deloitte on how to provide the right space for innovation within organizations.

In 2011 the huge buzzword was “Cloud.” It was so pronounced that by the third day we were joking about avoiding the “c-word.” This year the cloud was taken as a matter of fact, a reality that all executives (CIO’s, CISO’s, VP-level info security types, and consultants) take in stride and provide for in information security tactics. Here are some other salient tech trends from the conference:

  • SAAS – using the cloud, “software as a service” is now reality in many organizations. Google’s penetration with Google Docs into large enterprises or sales departments’ non-IT-aided implementation of SalesForce are both examples.

  • BYOD – lots of acronyms, right? “Bring your own device.” Workers want to use their personal technology-du-jour on the job. That means organizations can’t mandate Berries but have to adjust to iPhones, Droids, and the various tablets as accessing sensitive company information.

  • Big Data – this has been around in various forms, most often in the term “data-mining” for well over a decade. But now there are accessible, pragmatic tools to allow organizations to probe their mountains of data for patterns, opportunities, and profit generation.

Six years ago, on the eve of the Great Recession, a financial services CEO criticized me bitterly for engaging her board in scenarios that forecasted the possibility of individual customer experiences or products. Today large financial institutions can use Hadoop to gather information and do exactly what I posed as a possibility. That exec, incidentally, no longer heads that organization.