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Driverless Cars

Driverless Cars and Long Term Implications

Driverless cars are reality today. The street images you look at on Google Maps came from cameras mounted on some of the first examples. It’s a logical presumption that eventually consumers will adopt the technology for mobility.

What does that mean? Is it a short journey, a “hockey stick” adoption pattern, and do the benefits outweigh the difficulties of putting those vehicles on the road? Who will own them? Who will make them? What will be the impacts on auto insurance, manufacturing, purchase, lending, and payment for usage?

The questions are multiple and should be asked if you’re in any number of fields. Government, public safety, financial services, city planning, transportation, city dwellers, auto manufacturing, and geospatial fields come to mind immediately.

The adoption? It will depend on consumer attitudes and those will be shaped by existing perceptions and the safety record of the vehicles. Google is ahead in the development with an enviably low mishap rate but the recent Tesla-related death and a culture of experimentation in the driving industry force – the software sector – means that the road ahead will be bumpy.

Plus there’s the regulatory environment which right now is a patchwork of state laws in the US without a Federal baseline that needs to be established. As typical, government lags by anywhere from 5 to 10 years just as they have with other de novo technology issues like drones, advanced analytics, and cyber-currencies.

But what you can do right now is think through the implications of eventual adoption on your career or industry. After a recent presentation where I outlined the impact of 25% of drivers switching to use of driverless vehicles a state government executive cam
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e up to me and said his department at looked at the same possibility and determined that the existing highway infrastructure is currently overbuilt by about 40%. He said his state is scrambling right now to convert construction assessments to other forms of mass transit. He believed a 25% adoption was highly probable by 2040.

Insurance and financial services already anticipate the impact. Travelers places language in their annual report on the threat to their revenue of autonomous auto adoption. Warren Buffett is quoted as saying, “when you start making the driver safer, that would be a big, big jump, and that will happen some day, and when it happens there will be a lot less auto insurance written."


Photo: By Grendelkhan - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=47467048